Size Estimation of Most-at-Risk Groups of HIV/AIDS Using Network Scale-up in Tabriz, Iran

  • Ali JafariKhounigh Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
  • Ali Akbar Haghdoost Professor of Epidemiology, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute of Future Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
  • Shaker SalariLak Associate Professor of Epidemiology, Medical Sciences Faculty, Islamic Azad University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
  • Ali Hossein Zeinalzadeh Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran;
  • Reza Yousefi-Farkhad East Azerbaijan Province Health Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran.
  • Mehdi Mohammadzadeh East Azerbaijan Province Health Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran.
  • Kourosh Holakouie-Naieni Professor of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. Tel/Fax: +98 21 88950185
Keywords: Size estimation, Network scale-up, Social network, HIV, Most at risk population, Hidden population, Tabriz.

Abstract

Purpose: To begin to manage a serious health problem like AIDS, it is crucial that we know the size of the subpopulation related to the problem. In this study we used Network scale-up method (NSUM), an indirect method of size estimation of hard-to-reach subpopulation, to estimate most at risk population (MARPs) of Tabriz.

Methods: Having adapted a purposive sampling, we interviewed 500 people of target population. To estimate the size of social network (C), we used known population method through collecting data of 29 known sub-groups. To estimate most at-risk populations, we applied frequency approach of NSUM. Adjustments were done to correct common errors of this method.

Results: Among groups at risk due to sexual contact, the greatest frequency was related to clients of female sex workers (CFSWs) with 831 out of 100000 of men’s population (95% CI: 649, 1055), then female sex workers (FSWs) with 709 out of 100000 of women’s population (95% CI: 512, 930). Among groups at risk due to drug use, the biggest frequency belonged to alcoholic substance users with 1136 out of 100000 of total population (95% CI: 955, 1332). After that, it included opium users, crystal users and injecting drug users (IDUs), respectively.

Conclusion: Although the estimated number of MARPs in Tabriz is less than other areas, it is necessary to perform preventive programs like harm reduction programs to reduce transmission of AIDS.

Published
2014-04-01
Section
Research Articles